Essay --- Artificial Intelligence: Its promise and perils.

Humanity through constant human endeavor has achieved great many feats. Human beings have invented ways of efficient communication, faster traveling, storing of literary documents and data, and efficient ways of treating diseases, but the evolution of Artificial Intelligence and computer technologies has surpassed these earlier accomplishments. AI comes with numerous promises for humanity, most prominent are its potential socio-political, socio-economic, legal, and environmental benefits, however there are multiple perils associated with AI that can cause humanity great distress. AI comes with potential risks of endangering the security of a country and generating deep fakes that can have disastrous socio-political and socio-economic impacts. It can also stem job loss to millions and more alarming are its impacts on the environment. Although these statements may overshadow the advantages of Artificial Intelligence, the establishment of regulatory bodies, setting ethical boundaries, and the promotion of environment-friendly technology will help humanity reap the best of Artificial Intelligence.

The development of computing technology has been going on since the last two centuries when Charles Babbage developed his first mathematical machine “Abacus”. However, during the mid-20th century, scientists were able to design and develop more sophisticated computing devices. This is when influential figures like Alan Turing gave concepts like a "universal machine." The term "artificial intelligence" was coined in 1956 at the Dartmouth Conference, marking the formal birth of AI as a field. Early AI efforts focused on symbolic reasoning and problem-solving but faced setbacks in achieving human-like intelligence. In recent decades, AI has made remarkable progress and has advanced the concepts of machine learning and neural networks. AI now plays a crucial role in various applications, from natural language processing to self-driving cars and healthcare diagnostics, with growing potential to reshape industries and society.

Among its various potentials, AI can have a strong impact on governance. The use of big data and sophisticated algorithms can solve many governance issues. With increasing population and urbanization, allocating equal resources to all is a complex task for administrators. Proper mapping or sampling of a particular class of people with certain needs or diseases can enhance administrators’ ability to allocate requisite resources accurately and swiftly. AI can extend great help, in particular, in disaster-hit areas. Thus, the proper use of AI can help in the efficient use of human resources and time.

Keeping in view the regional and international conflicts, the national security and integrity of a country become a priority for policymakers. AI has the potential to empower countries to secure their national interest and national security. Computer systems capable of processing big data can predict threats more efficiently than humans. Such systems enable security agencies to analyze complex and widespread data that a man might not comprehend easily. The use of AI can reduce the human loss caused on the battlefield. It can reduce the economic impact incurred from the recruitment and maintenance of men for security purposes because much of the repeated tasks can be assigned to artificial intelligence. Thus, AI has great potential in not only the surveillance of the enemy but it can also alleviate the economic impact of human security.

With its potential for better security, AI has the potential to improve the economic conditions of a nation. There are examples of many developing countries, in particular, India which has promoted its tech industry and has been able to generate revenue worth $245 billion, with domestic revenue of the IT industry estimated at $51 billion, and export revenue estimated at $194 billion for the fiscal year of 2023. Artificial intelligence can empower nations such as Pakistan which has a youth population of over 64 percent. AI helps automate tasks and requires less effort to develop applications. This automation of work and the ability to solve complex problems increases the efficiency of people which ultimately increases their economic worth. Thus, substantial knowledge of AI and the availability of basic tech facilities can improve the economic conditions of many nations.

Another important aspect of artificial intelligence is its evolving role in healthcare. Throughout history, humanity has suffered severely because of fatal diseases. However, the evolution of the tech industry, in particular, the concept of AI has helped cure many incurable diseases. AI helps in the diagnosis of many lethal diseases. With that, it can help in dealing with every patient individually by prescribing him/her medications designed as per their genetics or level of disease. This individual care for every patient will improve longevity, and better health will prevail. Thus, the ability of AI to diagnose diseases at the earliest and the prescription of medication on an individual basis will undoubtedly help humanity immensely.

Furthermore, artificial intelligence can also extend its help in the premises of courts. AI using the concept of big data, which is huge or abundant relevant data about a specific domain, can predict and set priority for cases to be heard on a daily basis. A common phenomenon, particularly, in third-world countries like Pakistan is the pendency of thousands of cases even at the district court level. The mess of miscellaneous cases can undermine the priority of important cases that need to be solved on a priority basis. Apart from that, it can also help judges write scripts and analyze vast amounts of statements for the prediction of a rational result. Thus, using AI for generating the cause lists of regular cases can help immensely in prioritizing important cases and it can help the presiding officers comprehend huge data easily.

With its many usages, AI can significantly help the world tackle the issue of environmental degradation. Artificial intelligence, as it can analyze big data, can analyze the changing climate patterns and predict ways to tackle them more efficiently and promptly. With the use of AI, thousands of pictures of melting glaciers and reducing forests can be analyzed and results can be inferred for better policymaking. AI through the use of big data can predict the sources of environmental degradation that might evade the human eye. Thus, AI’s ability to predict and analyze a huge amount of data can enhance our ability to prepare for the future and take policy measures to prevent further degradation of the environment.

Considering all the potential promises of artificial intelligence, it brings great hope of prosperity for humanity and nature as a whole; however, there are enormous perils associated with the innovation of technology, specifically, with artificial intelligence. The common perils associated with AI are its threats to conventional security, deep fakes, loss of jobs, and the degradation of the environment. Thus, it is necessary to have a rational approach to harness the true potential of artificial intelligence.

Artificial intelligence is considered to be a threat to conventional security. As mentioned earlier, AI can potentially replace human security personnel. This innovation might have its economic benefit but trusting an artificially intelligent robot to make rational decisions all the time is dreaming in the day. Enabling AI-supported robots or weapons to make key decisions can endanger the whole of humanity. It can be prompted by an evil software instruction to launch attacks against neighboring countries. A minor mistake can lead to a full-fledged war. Thus, AI with all its promises can be a great threat to human security. Moreover, AI-empowered machines can cause significant human loss if endowed with the right to make autonomous decisions.

Secondly, artificial intelligence can maneuver images and sounds that look astonishingly real. This evil feature of AI has been recently used to spur the emotions of supporters and cause large protests. An example of the deep fake was evidenced when pictures of an ex-president of the United States Donald Trump were seen on social media outlets while he was dragged by policemen. Apart from this, AI can mimic sounds to produce voice messages and videos that can put the peace of countries at risk. The unrest caused as a result of deep fakes can have drastic socio-political and socio-economic impacts, particularly, for third-world countries like Pakistan. Thus, Deep Fake cannot only spoil a politician’s political career but also cause violence which ultimately can lead to socio-political and socio-economic crises.

Another major concern with the evolution of AI is the job loss. Millions of people have suffered from job loss during the period of COVID-19. However, the industry and corporate sector were quick to replace their human labor force with AI-supported machines. According to a Forbes report, it is estimated that nearly 300 million jobs could be lost or diminished due to the fast-growing technology. This is a sign of worry, albeit, AI has the potential to raise the annual GDP of developing and developed countries too. AI is considered to be a threat to conventional jobs that could easily be automated with the help of AI. Indeed, artificial intelligence has the potential to destabilize economies and cause job loss to millions, especially, conventional jobs.

As mentioned before, AI promises a great future for environmental prosperity; however, it also comes with the dangers of polluting the world even more. There are numerous reports that the world currently produces around 50 million tons of electronic waste annually. With a lack of recycling mechanisms, e-waste can overburden the already strained resources of waste management. Most of the 50 million e-waste is made up of used hardware components which are non-perishable and non-biodegradable waste in nature. This can consequently lead to rising sea levels, and water pollution because of toxic chemicals present in electronic devices, and can harm the marine species and ecosystem.

Undoubtedly, there are many risks associated with artificial intelligence for instance it is considered a threat to conventional security and jobs, and its negative impacts on the environment. Nevertheless, human progress has always been like that. We have always come up with solutions to problems but there have also been problems with those solutions too. It is nearly impossible to achieve perfect solutions to our daily problems. Just like that, AI does come with many threats to humanity but its promises outweigh its perils by far. There is a need to understand that we need to do a bit more than only inventing machines supported by artificial intelligence. We also need to design strategies to prevent the risks associated with AI. Strategies like the establishment of regulatory bodies that in return will set ethical boundaries and educate the masses about the potential promises and perils of AI. This deliberate and rational effort will eventually enable humans to harness the true potential of artificial intelligence.

Consequently, the way forward to reap the best of AI is to establish regulatory bodies. This needs to be done through the consent of the state, academia, and intellectuals. The state needs to provide academia with the resources to research the proper usage of modern technology. This research can then be used to design national and international policies for the use and development of AI technology. The development of AI technologies cannot be left to individual motives that are mostly driven by the economic prospects of such technology. There must be restrictions on what to build and how these technologies must be used. Thus, there need to be established regulatory bodies to define the rules of the game.

As a part of their role, these regulatory bodies will also have to set ethical boundaries for the use and development of AI-based technologies. As mentioned above, AI can deep fake sounds and images that can cause socio-political and socio-economic unrest. The regulatory bodies need to establish laws that punish the misuse of AI technology. There need to be separate cyber-wings efficiently trained to control the misuse of such tools. With that, there must be separate courts with trained judges to try the cases related to the misuse of AI technology. The core purpose of all this must be to limit the abuse of AI tools that can be used to harm the reputation of individuals and countries.

Lastly, we must develop a consensus on the manufacturing of eco-friendly AI technologies. As mentioned, there are nearly 50 million tons of e-waste produced annually that pollutes the environment significantly. This pollution can be reduced if the tech industry agrees on the development of a more eco-friendly technology. This is possible with the use of recycled e-waste and the development of hardware components with more energy-efficient material. This may look difficult but research and the will of political leaders can alter this fact. Thus, there must be a clear policy, strictly implemented globally, for the development of environment-friendly technology. 

To sum up, the birth of AI in the mid-20th century has revolutionized the lives of people globally. Nevertheless, it has also brought with it many perils that can put the lives of millions at risk. AI comes with its dangers that threaten conventional security with the use of deep fakes and fake news especially. It can dismantle millions of conventional jobs and degrade the environment too. However, AI also comes with promises for improved governance and national security apparatus. It can generate millions of jobs and revenue worth billions for developing countries. It comes with promises for the healthcare industry and the courts and most importantly it can have a significant role in protecting the environment. All these promises and perils of AI are valid, it is the will of global political leaders and tech giants that can change the course of the future for humanity. The establishment of regulatory bodies comprising the state, academia, and the intellectuals, setting ethical boundaries, educating the masses, and designing policies for the development of eco-friendly technologies will enable the world to harness the true potential of artificial intelligence. Thus, the evolution of AI can be devastating only if we let it be.